Wednesday, January 05, 2022

Fun with Exponential Trends (COVID-19 numbers from Johnson County, KS)

 Just playing with the COVID-19 numbers from Johnson County, KS today.  We've hit quite a spike the last week. From :


So I sampled the last 60, 30 and 7 days data, added an exponential trend line for 30 days and came up with this:

Here - let me expand the end of those trend lines if you can't see them.

60 Days:

30 days:

And 7 days:

Statistics are fun. 

Realistically, we'll end up somewhere in the 60 or 30 day pattern; I don't think the population would support 60,000 active cases of COVID-19 in Johnson County Kansas each week; we'd end up with more cases than people in a very short order.

Aprapo of nothing really.  Off to my next meeting.