Fun with Exponential Trends (COVID-19 numbers from Johnson County, KS)

 Just playing with the COVID-19 numbers from Johnson County, KS today.  We've hit quite a spike the last week. From : https://www.jocogov.org/department/health/covid-19

 

So I sampled the last 60, 30 and 7 days data, added an exponential trend line for 30 days and came up with this:

Here - let me expand the end of those trend lines if you can't see them.

60 Days:

30 days:

And 7 days:

Statistics are fun. 

Realistically, we'll end up somewhere in the 60 or 30 day pattern; I don't think the population would support 60,000 active cases of COVID-19 in Johnson County Kansas each week; we'd end up with more cases than people in a very short order.

Aprapo of nothing really.  Off to my next meeting.

Namaskara!

Will
 

COVID-19 Update, day 113

The latest news on COVID-19 infections from a friendly obsessed recreational statistician:

We had record New Cases from Alabama, Alaska, Kansas, North Carolina, Ohio, and South Carolina yesterday.  Florida pushed New Jersey down into 5^th overall. {Hurst, 2020)

And

Things have developed to the point that nothing less than a full shelter-in-place order will be sufficient.  The infection is so widespread, if people are out, the virus will be transmitted even if most people are careful. The fraction with poor compliance will ensure the virus is pretty much everywhere.  Close everything possible.  No schools.  No churches.  No sports.  About the only thing that should be open are groceries, Walmart/Costco, and hospitals.  And there are at least nine more states in the same situation right now, or will be in a week's time. (ibid)

Johnson County, KS Tested Cases:

These are Community cases - out in the public, not in long term care facilities. People who were out at the bar, grocery, or concert with you last night.  And yes, that line hit 100. All Time Record in Johnson County too.

Via Johnson County, KS - COVID-19 Update, July 3, 2020

My Take? Stay Home.  Wear Mask. Wash Hands. It's going to be a long, deadly summer. Avoid the news, avoid social media.  Read a good book.  Watch the birds.  Make things - photographs, crochet. Clean house.

Stay Safe!

- Will England

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Source:

Hurst, Scott, email correspondence, "End of Statistical Day, 7/3".  July 4, 2020